Munson and Maria Talk Bank Stocks

My first time doing a Skype interview for cable TV from my office! I have to say, I'm impressed considering the other guest had professional studios.

So, the bank earnings were decent, no disasters. While the media may paint it negatively, it's easier to cherry pick a few grim sound bites from the conference call rather than dig into the numbers and see through the noise.

The heart of the matter is clear: the average stock has been going down for six weeks, while Apple and the hot tech stocks have been ripping higher. As a contrarian, and someone who was at ground zero for the 2000 dot.com disaster, I just don't care for the buy high and sell higher routine, preferring to buy what's on sale with some margin of safety. I see the banks, or broadly speaking the Russel 1000 Value index (think the biggest cheap stocks that don't include the FANMAG names), along with some smaller areas like the MLPs and REITs are more my cup of tea when putting new cash to work. Why? Overall, the market is above what I calculate as more of the fair value of the SP500 - closer to 2800 than 3200. We saw that value can rise again back in late May into June, so it's not dead. However, you need to have a longer time line than the next month. Put another way, either the unloved areas show some signs of life - or it's bearish for the general markets. A bull market can't live on a few stocks going higher. But few remember what happened 20 years ago, and nobody said history has to repeat.

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Munson Explains Courage In A Melt Up June 4, 2020

A quick interview - where I stand now. It pretty much says it all. Sometimes you have to be blunt. My basic message is that when you have the support of your client’s, why not stick to your guns and the courage of your conviction?

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Lee And Jen: Two Camps And The Physical Indicatior, April 7th 2020

My talk with Jen Rogers on The Final Round - the two camps and my physical indicator. Yesterday we took off equity exposure as my theory came to fruition: the market rallies when we can see the peak. Today I believe we still must address the recession that was brewing before this started. There are two camps: those that believe there is a retest, and those that believe the bottom has happened. While I’m the retest camp, nobody knows. Prudence. Then she asks the best question: how do you feel? We talk about how I feel ill near bottoms - while anecdotal - it’s still worth mentioning.

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Munson Shares His Top Three Lessons On Bear Markets, April 6th 2020

I discuss my three main lessons I learned the hard way in bear markets. 1. You will never top tick the market - get over yourself. 2. Don’t forget to add to the bad kids at the bottom. 3. Going conservative at the bottom is dangerous to returns long term. We show a chart of the potential pain of owning small companies near the bottom, and how changing your strategy midway through a bear market can be dangerous. While I do rebalance and tweak the portfolios as we go through the bottoming process, it’s important to realize that the suffering is part of investing. Trying to avoid the suffering will lead to more suffering in the future as markets recover. This interview was exactly what I was telling my crew today - as we just completed a rebalancing program that took a good amount of equity exposure off the table. No matter how much experience I have gained over the last 22 years, you can never separate yourself from emotions, you just learn to live an examined life.

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Munson on CNBCs Power Lunch Talks Strategy On Virus

What can I say? It's CNBC Power Lunch. Kelly Evans and Tyler Mathisen asked great questions and let me talk. Needless to say I very much appreciated both the comment that I was on two weeks ago discussing my sells of stock and the other guest saying I was, in fact, not crazy. If you want to see leadership in times of trouble - check me out! My wife thought it a good idea to put some happy thoughts into the interview and suggested the colorful tie.

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Munson Evaluates Disney Amid Coronavirus

I have kids, so I know about sending cash to Disney on a regular basis. This interview highlights what separates wisdom versus experience. While the segment was focused on the streaming angle (competition for Netflix), the reality is that 40% of what Disney makes comes the old fashion way - getting people to fork over huge amounts of money to visit theme parks. To quote myself: "Theme parks are the cash cow. you take away a cash cow in a bearish market, you're toast." Now, do I think that is the case? I don't care, because you buy the stock and not the company. Right now we are seeing a market price in problems for parks. We can only guess the recovery if virus fears end and people keep on spending. We can also guess what would happen if Disneyland closed in the US for a week. It's another reason I like to buy index funds instead of betting on individual stocks.

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Yet To Feel Coronavirus In America Says Munson

I’m not a doctor, so I read the CDC’s information on the spread of the Coronavirus. We should expect this will spread because the experts say it will spread. This isn’t two market pundits arguing about the direction of the stock market. Now that our initial buying was complete at the 10% correction level, the next step is waiting for a retest of Friday’s lows on February 28th.

While I want more than anything to see a full 20% correction taking the SP500 down to 2750ish - nobody said you would get that, or if the market would stop going down at that point. It’s just a point; it’s just a bear market correction level. All I can say is that the market will give you what it gives you and you have the opportunity to listen and take action, or choose to anchor on a past number that is as random as markets.

So, if we saw a retest, or whatever you call it when I start buying again - what would I want to buy? Well, at this point I would like to add to my SP500 position and my Emerging Markets position to overweight them. At the same time, I’m using this correction to reduce a some Europe and Japan (aka our EFA holdings).

That’s all I know right now, and even that will change over time. You can also do nothing and ride out the storm. Because this too shall pass. P.S. Remember you still have Democratic primaries infecting the market at the same time.

What a week. And yes, I was having a bad hair day and only had time to hop in front of the camera and start talking!

Munson On Day 3 Of Coronavirus Panic, Relaxed And Waiting

The Watch List with Nicole Petallides is a favorite. Why? Nicole is always spot on with the questions people need to get answered AND they give me enough time to actually cover a topic properly.

This was day three of the panic - on the worst week since 2008. We had already sone some initial rebalancing, and just waiting for a full 10% correction around SP500 3050 - which we got the next day.

My main point was that you have to know what to buy, keep it simple and understand that a virus was coming in waves. Meaning, while China was slowly recovering, Italy was just starting.

I wore a Japanese mad cashmere jacket by John Varvatos. Very warm.

Munson Talks Initial Coronavirus/Sanders Selloff

This was day two of the massive selloff stemming from the Corona virus, and I added in that a Sanders victory the following week on Super Tuesday (didn’t happen) was getting people nervous. The soundbite was “Corona Feels The Bern.”

We were looking for a 10% correction around 3050 on the SP500 - and two days later we got it, and bought it. It’s fun to look back on how I felt that week, and how I steered the ship during the worst down week since 2008.

Plus - I had a very cool Alexander McQueen blazer for good luck.

It's great to be back on CNBC's Power Lunch discussing the huge one week selloff. Let me be clear, I'm a bull. I did some buying this week for the usual 5 and 10% corrections. But, but, but - we have some big issues that are both rare and serious.

First, we are contending not with a financial or political issue (those are easy!), but a change of behavior. Put another way, the cure to prevent widespread contagion is to stay away from other people. This will reduce consumption. Period. Second, I expect this to blow over by summertime. But if we get a few months of school closings and big events cancelled, it won't create pent up demand as I have saying earlier this week, it will mute demand. That is why I'm taking a rare step not seen since September of 2008 when Lehman went under.

So, what exactly am I doing differently? I drew a line in the sand and will not consider any more dip buying until we see a full 20% correction on the SP500 - around 2750. I strongly believe we will retest the 12/24/18 lows of 2350 - hey, that's 20% from here! Next, as you know I tend never to capitulate and sell stocks during a panic, but we did reduce our international (i.e. Europe and Japan) along with small cap indexes to buy some gold.

There is only one reason to sell stocks when you don't need the money - because you think you can buy them back cheaper in the near future. You can still be a long term investor and bullish on stocks while being pragmatic. While I may be wrong and the market bounces from here with not a worry in the world - but the virus is coming.

I'm not concerned about the body count; I'm very concerned about 2 months of everyone in America slightly slowing down consumption staying in to stay safe. Now - let's get this show on the road. Let's see the relief pop and then let's see the retest where we can buy with confidence and make some money!