Munson Hanging Out on Yahoo! Finance Opening Bid

Brian Sozzi, who I have known for more years than we want to admit, asked me to hang out on his show, Opening Bid. We covered all the good stuff - my views on the current selloff (I can’t wait for a correction!), AI spending (some rational, some irrational), and even hit some topics like the soft consumer. Sozzi hit Home Depot as a sign of consumer weakness, and I took Target to the woodshed - declining sales and lost mojo. We had a crypto expert on as well, and she pressed a point I’m in agreement with - Bitcoin is now just a reflection of a risk on trade, and when that trade is in a bear market, the broader markets tend to follow. From my research, there is about a 2-6 week lag. So, if Bitcoin is any indication, we may have a larger correction before year end. Time will tell. And, it’s better to have a plan and not need to use it than no plan at all!

Lee Munson Appears on 'Mornings With Maria Bartiromo' talking tariffs and stock markets

Well, let’s just dive into Monday morning and take the pulse of the market:

Markets: I have the Nasdaq 100 looking at 20% earnings growth next 12 months – but I ALSO have small value at 12% with half the valuation. AND rate cuts. You have broad participation of making earnings grow, a necessary component for broad participation. Add trade de-escalation and you end up with higher prices a year from now.

Tech Earnings expectations: Apple must show solid iPhone 17 demand, services is a sideshow without it, so a consumer story. Microsoft is all about monetize AI, or else we are no longer a growth and margin story which is a big transition! AMZN still looking at low double digit earnings. This week tells you the economy.

Tariffs: 100% tariffs on China “is effectively off the table” – there is no other news. Rare earths controls were deferred which is the best-case scenario. We bought some time and that’s good enough for markets.

Inflation: Sticky at 3%. I see labor and cost side keeping it that way. With declining wage inflation, sticky labor, you could see a slower rate cutting cycle than markets wants – that gives you volatility to commit capital – because, again, earnings are strong. Buy any dip from inflation scares.

Fed and yield activity: labor is in control not inflation. Invest accordingly. Now is a transition from risk management cuts with Powell to a full rate cutting cycle (next chairperson).

Munson Killing it on CNBC's Power Lunch

They made a special exception on the Market Navigator segment - allowing me access to the studio so I can talk shop with Dom Chu himself! First off, anything but NVDA!!! It's a running joke at CNBC that all anyone wants to hear about is the AI bellwether.

Nope, we went straight to RHI, staffing agency Robert Half International. Why? It's fascinating! This stock has a huge correlation to the JOLTs surveys. In plain English, when employment volatility heats up either because of a recession or a hot job market - this stock has done well. Big bow to Jesus my analyst for first discovering this correlation.

Then the producers gave us some bonus time so we went right into TTD - The Trade Desk. The largest independent digital ad sales firm, has ben eviscerated this year due to perceived competition from AMZN and connected TV ads coming down in price. I agree! But ask yourself, AMZN just made the pie bigger with their ad supported Prime Video - along with Hulu and Netflix. We are back to the future where watching TV involves ads. Right in time for a stressed consumer looking to save money. Time will tell.

Lee Munson Talks Gold vs Stock trading

Recently spoke about gold (the host wanted to discuss it as it was making new highs), and I was happy to share my personal and professional experiences. I have no disdain for gold owners - I’ve made a lot of money trading gold in my career. But I don’t do it actively anymore for several reasons I discuss in this interview. I love that gold bugs are getting their day in the sun the last few years - they need it. Gold is a hard asset to trade and over long periods of time it struggles to keep up with inflation. I prefer stocks and bonds.

Maria Bartiromo asks Lee Munson: Fed cuts, China trade talks, how to play it

Great interview on September 16th, one of my favorites of the year. Maria and I had extra time to run though the top questions investors want to know.

China trade talks? This isn't about TikTok, it's about rare earths and chips. Underneath the surface, we need materials for defense, they need access to our advanced semiconductors for the same reason.

Market positioning? AI is still king of spending cycle, but clear trade policy and slow Fed cuts will prop up US manufacturing. It's all about the big tech and small value in a giant barbell.

Fed meeting and outlook? Expect a tech selloff. Nothing Powell will say will be good enough. If it is, it will look like he is caving into Trump.

Retail sales? It's all about the top 20% wage earning consumer. If that cracks? All bets are off. Don't focus on the lowest earners, it's not what drives the market.

Enjoy!

Retail Earnings and Jackson Hole: Fed Cuts or Fed Nuts?

The bottom line: big retailers confirm or don't confirm inflation is on the horizon. Home Depot, Target, and WalMart report - all ending this week with an important speech from Fed Chairman Powell in Jackson Hole.

This Fed is data driven, and there are 30 more days to get hot inflation reports and job data. If labor stays strong and inflation starts to bite, don't expect a cut in September.

I'm a buyer if all of this causes a market disruption. Position accordingly.

Munson on CNBC Power Lunch with Brian Sullivan

Let's not bury the lead! I said it, "no Fed cut in September" - and you would have thought I said the world was ending. Simply put, the Fed is data driven, and any small bump in inflation will dash hopes. Plus, by what measure are financial conditions tight? Look at the NFCI from the Chicago Fed then let me know when it's actually tight. Now, back to the main body of the interview:

CSCO - mid single digit growth during the best backdrop in years? You have AI pushing up sales and that is all it can do? Don't tell me bedtime stories with the Splunk aquisition - but if that makes you feel better... notiable it's almost at all time highs - last seen in 2001. That is a long wait.

DE - we sold this week ahead of earnings, but the reality is the stock did well this year since 80% of the parts are sourced domestically - but the reality is forestry and construction customers are being hit by tariffs. you can execute perfectly, but if the customers pull back - you know the line: you can't escape the Macro!

DHI - I was dead in the water all year and all of a sudden it's beating the SP500 and up 30% in the last few months. Bottom line: investors can see future fed cuts (if they panic in September, I could buy more). Now it's about managing expectations between now and May, when we know Trump will install a dovish Fed Chair.

Lee Munson Appears on FBNs Mornings With Maria Bartiromo to discuss China Trade Talks

It's real simple: the best we can hope for is no trade embargo. China is our military advisory AND our third largest trading partner. They want advanced chip technology and we want rare earths. Neither side can go forward without the other. Like most things in life, there is not a one shot solution but a slow and constant effort to keep the peace.

Outside of that I was asked about interest rates. Let me be clear on how I see it, and how I am playing it. I don't see the Fed cutting anytime this year. Inflation is not 2%, unemployment has not fallen off a cliff, and we still do not have clear trade policy. Period. Add to that, we never had highly restrictive monetary policy in the first place. The market will have to live on the hope of a new Fed Chairman being installed by the Trump White House next May - it's less than a year away. And really, what would a 0.25% cut this year do? Not much. The market will live either way.

What is my big takeaway from the interview today? People are all bulled up on optimism due to strong earnings, the promise of higher productivity from AI, and nobody can see a problem on the horizon. Expect the markets to keep ripping higher until reality settles in when America gets a 15% across the board tax on imports. Will moderated growth cause valuations to drop on Mega Tech as smaller firms see renewed interest? Time will tell.

Fox Business asks Munson: Fed Policy, Oil, Iran Conflict

While stock and bond markets are closed - money never sleeps. I was asked my opinion on Fed Policy, Oil and the Iran Conflict. Let's dive in!

Fed Policy - The Fed should take the rest of the year off—and I think they will. While the market is pricing in some cuts later this year, Powell was very clear that he has to see size of the effects on tariffs before making a move. Don't fear! The current narrative is Treasury Secretary Bessent will take over next may with a quick path to cuts. A host asked if I thought the market could hold out by then. I said it all depends on the hard data, not sentiment.

OIL - Yes, oil spiked on the Iran conflict, but it’s right back to where it was in January! We’re at the high end of the normal range we had before the “Liberation Day” selloff. This isn’t a breakout. It’s a reset. We should be watching for demand destruction or surprise OPEC moves before we overreact.

Iran - Bottom line: a safer world is a more investable world. Two things can be true at once: many Americans are deeply troubled by the broader conflict in the region, but there is near-universal support for how Iran was handled by Israel by major European countries. The U.S. standing firm behind the actions and providing military support shows strength, and markets love certainty. I'm surprised that markets hav held up so well.

Fox Business asks Munson: Fed Decision, Trade Deal, Earnings

Nothing is better than being asked to share my vies on the Fed after a big meeting - what an honor! Maria give me a chance to get my ideas out there even when it's not in consensus with the mainstream narrative.

The bottom line: I love the Fed's position. They want to see hard data and not just bearish sentiment polls. They are clear employment is front and center.

As for earnings, 85% of firms have reported as of this interview and I was SHOCKED that we had so many CEOs give forward earnings - I even admitted I was wrong a month ago when I suggested very little forward earnings were expected - so nice to be wrong! Let's just see if we can get a few trade deals - there is nothing this bullish snapback from Liberation Day need more.