Munson Calls Telsa Top, How to Trade Corona Virus February 4, 2020

Another slam dunk for energy, enthusiasm, and just plan fun hanging out with Jen Rogers and crew of The Final Round. First off - I show the 2008 Volkswagon chart and drop the mic - is this what’s happening with Tesla? The next day it dropped 300 points, so yeah, probably. Then I go off to explain what would cause me to get into this market and do some buying. The bottom line, you have to wait and see the markets really make a big move, not just a single day or two of high volatility. I’m not impressed with a 10% retracement on Chinese and Hong Kong stock indexes that only get us back to early December. Yes, the S&P 500 doing a 10% drop would be a cool buy point - but these other markets are far more volatile, so let’s wake up for more of a 15-20% drop considering how bad the infection could spread - or not. This is they key point - let the market show us, and don’t try to second guess what is. Like Luke Skywalker defeating the Death Star - you have to “wait for it.” At the end we play a game of what overpriced garbage would I buy - pot stocks, bitcoin, Tesla, or Beyond Meat - come on, I just said Beyond Meat because I’m a vegan - because I wouldn’t buy any of them!!! Stick to the basics, be patient, and have the courage of your conviction.

Munson talks Small Caps and REITs January 28, 2020

Nicole Petallides is all pro and even more fun to talk markets with. She and I yapped it up on what I was looking at during the coronavirus volatility. Here is the thing - we don’t know how this will pan out, so why not stick to your guns and add to things you wanted more of pre-virus. For me, that includes adding to emerging markets if they really get beat up - think 10-15% off from the year.

Also, I go through what we are overweighting right now - small cap value has come alive after a few years of underperformance and our models suggest more exposure versus less. Same thing for REITs - and let’s be practical, investors are yield starved, the Fed isn’t raising rates tomorrow, and I’d rather have a diversified REIT basket as a defensive play than mess around with utilities. Enjoy the tapes - because I really enjoyed doing this interview today.

Munson's Favorite Yahoo Interview Of The Year, Oct 1, 2019

Need I say more?

Jen and the gang at The Final Round let the tapes roll as I whistle through the graveyard of finance.

I literally talk about everything that is on my mind that's relevant to managing money over the next year:

Pessimism in Europe Trade war in China Value momentum overtaking growth

What it takes to invest in emerging markets, and why I have it

Why our clients can stick with volatile times with no fear

How to trade this year, how to trade next year

The list goes on and I love the energy of this hit.

Munson's Bull Case For Gold and What He Is Telling Clients Oct 1, 2019

Dropping by TD Ameritrade Network Studio in the NASDAQ building. Very cool to go down to Time Square and feel the energy of the people looking in from outside - it's like being on the Today Show! It's a great 8 minute interview where I just let it rip.

The highlights are my case for gold, a rally going into the end of the year - why a recession is possible later next year - and most importantly, what I'm telling clients to do with their money.

If you want the real deal - this is it.

Lee Munson and Maria Bartiromo Bull Now, Bear Later Oct 1, 2019

It's always a pleasure working with Maria. This time around I was in NYC meeting with client's when I stopped by to talk my trade strategy over the next year.

First, volatility didn't materialize which didn't shock me. August already saw major asset classes retest December lows. But, the S&P 500 didn't. I think traders ignored the other retests and thought the S&P 500 had to follow, and it didn't. Most people trade the VIX, which is tied to the S&P 500 - it's the details, right?

Second, I explain why earnings season will be fine: expectations were slashed this summer. Of course it will be fine! So strap in for a Santa Clause rally.

Third, what really raised some eyes (even mine) was my prognostication that earnings estimates are 30-40% too high for next year - specifically the end of the year. That could turn out to be very wrong if we end the trade war and have another four years of a pro-business US President. But then again, we are talking about the market rising on hope and a narrative of consumer confidence versus bottom line earnings.

The bottom line: expect the mostly likely scenario and be prepared for the opposite.

Munson On Small Cap Value Surge September 11, 2019

I tried to put on a business as usual face during this interview on September 11th. It was great to have a distraction from reflecting on this historic day in history that we shall never forget. What was on my mind? Simple. I was really enjoying the surge in small cap value stocks, and really, all value stocks that week. We don’t know if this was a false start or the beginning of a major rotation out of overpriced growth stocks and into firms with higher earnings yields and lower valuations.

Also, I loved the other guys point on silver. After 10 years of not being interested in gold, I’m definitely looking to start adding exposure as the Fed continues to devalue money while little upside in bond appreciation is left.

Munson's Playbook For Rest Of 2019 on The Final Round

I’m still working out the sound in my new Skype studio. It’s always a work in progress, as is the market when you get near a time of great change.

In deep thought on the yield curve. . . or perhaps falling asleep!

Jen Rogers goes though my playbook for the rest of the year. It’s pretty simple. We were more cautious earlier this year when expectations were way too high, in my humble opinion. It didn’t make sense that the trade war would just go away. Now that this has sunk in, along with an inverted yield curve (a boogie man that is misunderstood by many, studied by few) expectations have dropped considerably. So, play the crowd.

Manufacturing is way off because of uncertainty on trade (hey, we assume is the cause, don’t ever be certain) . If we get a trade deal or the concept of a trade deal aligning with a decent earnings season (should be a lot easier when the estimates go down), people as usual will probably overreact and say those magical words that it’s different this time. Well, it’s always different. We will see in the end how all this pans out, but just know that the math is always clear - statistically bailing out of stocks after an inversion is a bad idea, but that assumes you have a well diversified strategy and not simply the hot stuff at the time.

Lee Gets Grilled On Fed Cuts, Trade War, and Recession

Well, it's becoming real clear what the zeitgeist of the next few months is going to be - a huge global bet on recession and the trade war. Yes, those two things are one for now. Add this to the backdrop of foreign investors pouring money into the US because of our high interest rates and hot large cap market. We have seen this before.

Then you add the backdrop of recession signals, lowered earnings expectations, and market moving tweets to arrive at a volatile market. My take? I'm sticking to my discipline and my view hasn't changed since January - a slow second half ending in people saying it's different this time. It won't be.

Munson On Recession And Buying Dividends August 21st, 2019

I was asked my opinions by Nicole Petallides (she did 10 years at Fox Business Morning) for TDA Network. It’s a huge audience of around 750k traders. Since that is the audience, I get into the weeds on the German bond auction (who wants -0.5% for 30 years?), the huge yield of international value stocks (over 4% dividend yield, why not?), and the retest of the December lows for US small cap value (you buy retests of past lows, right?).

Here was my big issue beyond the trade talk: From Germany to France to the US - it’s all the same. Manufacturing is way off yet services is doing fine. What gives? Simple. The trade war really hurts firms that have to invest capital over the next 3-5 years. We simply have too much uncertainty for firms that are thinking of making big investments. On the other side, consumers are just fine. This fits my thesis that over the next six months you buy the weakness. Then, as people realize the recession didn’t happen overnight, markets shrug off the bad news to new highs - that is when you start taking profits and prepare for the actual recession that usually hits 12-18 months after a yield curve inversion.

The bottom line for non-traders: you stay optimistic in the face of uncertainty until 2020, then you reassess and tread cautiously.

Maria Bartiromo and Lee Munson Discus the Trade War August 20th, 2019

This week I was asked to appeark on Neil Cavuto's Your World on Fox News. Maria Bartiromo was filling in. Everyone on the panel made good points - but mine were to the point. We have a national security issue with China that is being addressed though a trade war. Why? Because in dealing with China, money talks. You can't separate trade and intellectual property/military espionage. So, apparently the President is trying to resolve this issue (we can argue about tactics all day) while trying to get the Fed or Congress to juice up the market in order to avoid an early recession. It's a modern version of "guns and butter."

Here is what I know - your odds of making money 3-12 months after a yield curve inversion are high. Estimates for the second half of this year have come down. So, I think we have 6 months of decent markets before a little caution is warranted. The best advice is to stay diversified and stick to a plan. But, it's fun to be on TV and talk about the remains of the day.