This week I was asked to appeark on Neil Cavuto's Your World on Fox News. Maria Bartiromo was filling in. Everyone on the panel made good points - but mine were to the point. We have a national security issue with China that is being addressed though a trade war. Why? Because in dealing with China, money talks. You can't separate trade and intellectual property/military espionage. So, apparently the President is trying to resolve this issue (we can argue about tactics all day) while trying to get the Fed or Congress to juice up the market in order to avoid an early recession. It's a modern version of "guns and butter."

Here is what I know - your odds of making money 3-12 months after a yield curve inversion are high. Estimates for the second half of this year have come down. So, I think we have 6 months of decent markets before a little caution is warranted. The best advice is to stay diversified and stick to a plan. But, it's fun to be on TV and talk about the remains of the day.