Fox Business Invites Portfolio Wealth Advisors CIO Lee Munson to Discuss Markets

August 7, 2017

This week I was in NYC meeting with client’s and having a blast with my daughter, Zoë. In between the trip to American Girl, MOMA, and American Natural History Museum, we got in a few media appearances.

Here is the link:

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5534684786001/?playlist_id=3601801609001#sp=show-clips

[use the pic of me below as the link picture]

And the You tube link [the main link I want people to use – so order it that way, and have the actual Fox link more off to the side – again, always promote the YouTube first since no ads and edited just to my part.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdQ5BumAaew

American Girl Café with Zoë and Chloë]

Sitting down with Gerri to talk markets]

Gerri Willis was hosting Making Money on Fox Business. We sat down and discussed if investors should be concerned about the current market environment. Gerri is an experienced host that knows this can all be boiled down to a few things. 

HOLD ON people, we don’t have an inverted yield curve yet…

First, we have no inverted yield curve. Lucky for viewers, Gerri stopped me in order to explain what that means. When short term interest rates are higher than long term rates, it’s called an inverted yield curve. What does that mean? Pretty much anytime you see it a recession is close by. We aren’t even close to those conditions. 

Pullback! I want a pullback! Explaining to Gerri why a mild pullback could be all we get, despite the negative investor sentimen

As long as we continue to have positive growth in profits and easy money from the Fed, don’t expect anything but market volatility. It’s a big recession we worry about, and that isn’t on the horizon for the near future. 

Gerri Willis – a first class act

If you want more information on how I help client’s live off their stock and bond portfolio, call me at 505-884-3445.

Markets Group Private Wealth Rocky Mountain Forum Asks Lee Munson To Speak: Part I

I was asked to be a speaker for Markets Group Private Wealth Forum up in Denver this month. It’s a great opportunity to hand out with great thinkers and you always end up meeting some interesting characters. I like that I am enough of an in-demand speaker that they pay my way and feed me. Plus, I can sneak out at night and hit some of my favorite Denver dinning spots like City O’ City.

These events are planned months in advance and we never quite know if the topic we agree on will be what we talk about. So, I don’t do much work on the talk until a week before – then I go into full speaker mode.

In three parts, I will share with you my speaker notes. Below you will get a feel for what I’m thinking, and how we manage our assets. The three main categories are volatility (or lack of), how to handle rising interest rates, and what we are doing differently this year. Let me know if you have any comments or feedback at Lee@PortfolioLLC.com.

Part 1: Volatility - Where Did It Go?

Background: This is a professional crowd and I just got asked about the very low level of volatility since January. We have been discussing the historical lows on the VIX, an index that tracks stock volatility, and the audience wants to know what I think.

“Look up the statistics and notice one big thing – the lowest levels on record are from an early back test! Meaning, we are currently experiencing the lowest levels since the VIX was actually tradable, not just a back tested formula. We are very far from a 30-40 VIX, for real people. What is the VIX, really? The willingness to pay for insurance. Pros buy puts on markets. Pros are all out to lunch until the tax cuts in the fall.  Nobody thinks insurance is worth the price, so the price drops.

Early this year some trader they call ‘50 Cent’ for his strategy of buying 80million in VIX puts priced at 50 cents a contract. They ALL expired worthless. Don't go against a low volatility market. Or, just don't do much. [here is a link, the trader was unmasked recently]

Focus on making money right here right now and buy every rip in volatility until it’s solidly in the 20s. Like S&P 500 at 2180, no question, invest cash if you have it, and rebalance at anything resembling DJIA 19,999. Because we still go higher and see 2500 S&P 500 by year-end, that's the place it's headed. But know ahead of time the places you want then be open to 'feeling your level of confidence.'

You can always add to SPY [S&P 500 tracking ETF], but why? There's a whole world of garbage out there - I love those nether-regions." [I’m being facetious and the audience gets it. But the joke is about how everyone these days just buys the S&P 500 and it’s an issue everyone is aware of]

Financial Times Interview: Behavioral Apathy

Murray Coleman recently interviewed Lee Munson on his views regarding behavioral coaching.

Everyone can use a coach

“Behavioral coaching is almost a lost art — too many advisors see it as crossing a line between acting like an amateur psychologist and serving as a trusted financial pro,” says Lee Munson, chief investment officer at Portfolio Wealth Advisors in Albuquerque, N.M., which manages $250 million.

Clearly, the industry sees behavior as the biggest threat to an investment plan, but why do many advisors ignore or fear this essential element? Lee Munson has a theory that most advisors were simply stockbrokers that are RIAs (Registered Investment Advisors) in name only. Most want to continue to pick high priced mutual funds and ignore the very reason people seek a world-class financial advisor. But, does holistic planning cross the line of an advisor’s skill set?

You don't have to be a doctor to be a great coach.

“You don’t have to be trained as a psychologist to become a good coach,” says advisor Munson, who considers himself a student of behavioral finance. “You just need a real desire to find out what people truly want to do with their money and how they see it affecting their lives.”

Link:

https://financialadvisoriq.com/c/1641933/189583/behavioral_apathy_seen_biggest_threat_returns?referrer_module=mostPopularSaved&module_order=2

Financial Times Interview of Lee Munson

The Financial Times recently interviewed Lee Munson regarding the Department of Labor’s new fiduciary rule that is pushing ahead with a new share class of mutual funds called T-shares. 

“T-shares are a hoax – I’m horrified that people are being put into these funds,” says Lee Munson, chief investment officer at Portfolio Wealth Advisors in Albuquerque, N.M., which manages more than $250 million.”

THE HORROR OF T-SHARES

Lee didn’t stop there, further on he told Murray Coleman how the flat-rate structure wasn’t cutting it.

“This is like trying to charge the same price for a Honda Civic as a Lexus sedan.”

It's still a Honda, folks

Ultimately, this is a overt loophole that allows stockbrokers, or those that sell financial products versus providing financial advice, to circumvent the new rules.

How does Portfolio Wealth Advisors plan to address the new fiduciary rules that require advisors to work in clients' best interest when working with retirement accounts?

“We don’t have to do a thing. Portfolio Wealth Advisors always acts as a fiduciary for our clients. So, while stockbrokers prepare for more regulation to protect their rights to NOT work in your best interests and charge high commissions for dubious so-called products, we continue to do the right thing for clients just like we have since the beginning. ”

Fox Business Asks Lee Munson Why Markets Thrive

Portfolio Wealth Advisors CIO Lee Munson was asked to appear on top ranked Fox Business show, Countdown To The Closing Bell. Ashley Webster, guest host filling in for Liz Clayman, asked Munson why the markets continue to surge despite a disappointing 1Q GDP report. Click on the link here.

Lee makes the following points:

1. Investors are moving shares forward, or merely sideways over the last few months in anticipation of tax cuts for corporations. This will immediately increase profits.

2. We don’t know if the short-term effect of tax cuts will translate into increased corporate spending and investment in people and equipment. That is the uncertainty that only time will reveal.

3. Don’t focus on dividends, focus on great companies and asset classes that you can buy at a discount. Usually those parts of the market already pay great dividends.

4. From cloud computing to advanced manufacturing, focus on profits.

5. History has shown that stocks that sell for less than their peers have higher performance than overpriced garbage. 

Don't Fight the Tape!

There is an expression in our business - "Don't fight the tape"!

So, while it was a surprise to some, we ended Q1 on a positive note. This sets a tone for the rest of the year from a momentum standpoint.  Keep in mind though that the wide variety of potential policy outcomes will cause uncertainty for the year. Uncertainty may result in increased volatility and can provide opportunities for buying on dips and selling into rallies.  Global equities and inflation-resistant assets should do well, but a tilt toward smaller capitalization stocks both home and abroad are merited at this point in the business cycle. This is a time to keep a sharp eye on the ball for both opportunities and for protection.