Munson Back on Making Money with Charles Payne

Charles producer reached out to see if I would be willing to discuss value stocks - and of course the answer was yes!

Here is the bottom line: Value isn’t a sector. It’s a discipline. It’s paying less for a stream of cash flows than that business is worth. Sometimes that’s energy. Sometimes it’s financials. And sometimes it’s mispriced tech like Amazon - or Google a year ago. It’s about valuation relative to growth and durability — not about whether a company makes steel or software.

Right now, some areas we traditionally associate with value are very pricy, and the hot glamor stocks (just call that the Nasdaq 100!) have seen their inflated multiple come down, just not enough to get me excited - yet.

Remember that CEOs don't grow up wanting to be a value stock - it's something that happens due to poor performance, investor sentiment, and economic trends. So don't go looking for the Loch Ness monster - which is a permanent value stock - we call that a value TRAP.

Munson Asked His Opinion on AI Stocks, Earnings, and Signs of a Bubble

We are about to see the largest IPO in history. We have companies engaging in circular financing similar to the year 2000. We have no clear revenue plan for most of the massive investments in data centers. What could go wrong? If you go looking, the mind will see what it wants to see. Let's break it down and understand what markets are asking and the potential responses by firms.

The big issue going into next year is a clear path of profits for the trillions of dollars we are going to spend on AI infrustructure. We don't have that yet, and when places like Microsoft report slower than expected uptake on AI revenues (i.e. people aren't signing up for AI services as fast as expected), markets pause. When cash machines like Facebook suddenly start borrowing billions to build out AI, not to mention debt hog Oracle, markets get the jitters. But if the revenues follow, and the money flows, it's hard to knock down higher valuations. While we may not be there yet, if earnings don't start catching up with earnings (they have over the last few months!), the day of reconing will come sooner and be more painful.

The good news is that the hot AI names have paused over the past 4 months and let earnings catch up. You can also see value stocks killing it during that same time period. Thus, diversification isn't dead, it's doing what it's supposed to do, and overall markets are healthy. Let's keep an eye on it.

Munson 2026 Outlook and last interview of 2025

As I wrap up 2025, my last interview had a few themes: tech earnings and who will lead the Fed. Is there anything else people care about? Not really.

The earnings for tech is there, as it is for the rest of the market. For some reason, most investors are focused on the problems of the world and what politicians say all day rather than tune out the noise and observe earnings. We have seen market valuations decline of the last quarter, as earnings increase and are revised up in aggregate. So, if volatility picks up, I'm looking to add to my equity exposure next year.

As for the Fed, I'm unconcerned about how fast or slow they cut. The Fed wants to cut, but they will do it on their timeline. That gives investors a great backdrop for equity performance, as well as enough uncertainty to allow for volatility when impatient traders don't get cuts on their timeline.

Munson on Fox Business: China, Chips, and Hostile Takeovers

It was a fast morning of hitting the big news that has long term repercussions.

First, we discuss the decision by POTUS to allow H200 Nvidia chips to be exported to China. Time has passed and these are like last weeks newspaper. Here is the big idea - we continue to normalize trade with China, so hopefully we can keep getting exprot certificates for rare earths!

Next, the hostile takeover of Warner Brothers by Paramount is more than simply an exciting news story - it's about the future of the movie industry as we know it. I like Paramount because they are bringing UFC over in January. Time will tell if the minnow swallowing the whale will actually happen.

As for markets, earnings are strong. All we have to fear is AI stock disappointments and the Fed not slashing rates fast enough - so, plenty of risk!

Munson Hanging Out on Yahoo! Finance Opening Bid

Brian Sozzi, who I have known for more years than we want to admit, asked me to hang out on his show, Opening Bid. We covered all the good stuff - my views on the current selloff (I can’t wait for a correction!), AI spending (some rational, some irrational), and even hit some topics like the soft consumer. Sozzi hit Home Depot as a sign of consumer weakness, and I took Target to the woodshed - declining sales and lost mojo. We had a crypto expert on as well, and she pressed a point I’m in agreement with - Bitcoin is now just a reflection of a risk on trade, and when that trade is in a bear market, the broader markets tend to follow. From my research, there is about a 2-6 week lag. So, if Bitcoin is any indication, we may have a larger correction before year end. Time will tell. And, it’s better to have a plan and not need to use it than no plan at all!

Lee Munson Appears on 'Mornings With Maria Bartiromo' talking tariffs and stock markets

Well, let’s just dive into Monday morning and take the pulse of the market:

Markets: I have the Nasdaq 100 looking at 20% earnings growth next 12 months – but I ALSO have small value at 12% with half the valuation. AND rate cuts. You have broad participation of making earnings grow, a necessary component for broad participation. Add trade de-escalation and you end up with higher prices a year from now.

Tech Earnings expectations: Apple must show solid iPhone 17 demand, services is a sideshow without it, so a consumer story. Microsoft is all about monetize AI, or else we are no longer a growth and margin story which is a big transition! AMZN still looking at low double digit earnings. This week tells you the economy.

Tariffs: 100% tariffs on China “is effectively off the table” – there is no other news. Rare earths controls were deferred which is the best-case scenario. We bought some time and that’s good enough for markets.

Inflation: Sticky at 3%. I see labor and cost side keeping it that way. With declining wage inflation, sticky labor, you could see a slower rate cutting cycle than markets wants – that gives you volatility to commit capital – because, again, earnings are strong. Buy any dip from inflation scares.

Fed and yield activity: labor is in control not inflation. Invest accordingly. Now is a transition from risk management cuts with Powell to a full rate cutting cycle (next chairperson).

Munson Killing it on CNBC's Power Lunch

They made a special exception on the Market Navigator segment - allowing me access to the studio so I can talk shop with Dom Chu himself! First off, anything but NVDA!!! It's a running joke at CNBC that all anyone wants to hear about is the AI bellwether.

Nope, we went straight to RHI, staffing agency Robert Half International. Why? It's fascinating! This stock has a huge correlation to the JOLTs surveys. In plain English, when employment volatility heats up either because of a recession or a hot job market - this stock has done well. Big bow to Jesus my analyst for first discovering this correlation.

Then the producers gave us some bonus time so we went right into TTD - The Trade Desk. The largest independent digital ad sales firm, has ben eviscerated this year due to perceived competition from AMZN and connected TV ads coming down in price. I agree! But ask yourself, AMZN just made the pie bigger with their ad supported Prime Video - along with Hulu and Netflix. We are back to the future where watching TV involves ads. Right in time for a stressed consumer looking to save money. Time will tell.

Lee Munson Talks Gold vs Stock trading

Recently spoke about gold (the host wanted to discuss it as it was making new highs), and I was happy to share my personal and professional experiences. I have no disdain for gold owners - I’ve made a lot of money trading gold in my career. But I don’t do it actively anymore for several reasons I discuss in this interview. I love that gold bugs are getting their day in the sun the last few years - they need it. Gold is a hard asset to trade and over long periods of time it struggles to keep up with inflation. I prefer stocks and bonds.

Maria Bartiromo asks Lee Munson: Fed cuts, China trade talks, how to play it

Great interview on September 16th, one of my favorites of the year. Maria and I had extra time to run though the top questions investors want to know.

China trade talks? This isn't about TikTok, it's about rare earths and chips. Underneath the surface, we need materials for defense, they need access to our advanced semiconductors for the same reason.

Market positioning? AI is still king of spending cycle, but clear trade policy and slow Fed cuts will prop up US manufacturing. It's all about the big tech and small value in a giant barbell.

Fed meeting and outlook? Expect a tech selloff. Nothing Powell will say will be good enough. If it is, it will look like he is caving into Trump.

Retail sales? It's all about the top 20% wage earning consumer. If that cracks? All bets are off. Don't focus on the lowest earners, it's not what drives the market.

Enjoy!

Retail Earnings and Jackson Hole: Fed Cuts or Fed Nuts?

The bottom line: big retailers confirm or don't confirm inflation is on the horizon. Home Depot, Target, and WalMart report - all ending this week with an important speech from Fed Chairman Powell in Jackson Hole.

This Fed is data driven, and there are 30 more days to get hot inflation reports and job data. If labor stays strong and inflation starts to bite, don't expect a cut in September.

I'm a buyer if all of this causes a market disruption. Position accordingly.