ORNAX: The Crowd Is Always Wrong, An Update [30-Jun-09]

Lee Munson and Lorn Owen Davis provide an update on our independent fund research on Oppenheimer Rochester Municipal Funds (ORNAX).

Listening to the Oppenheimer Rochester Municipal Funds Conference Call on June 24, 2009 we got a chance to hear the thoughts of the experts on the municipal bond markets. The fund managers were extremely upbeat about the markets and the situation they were trading in. They view the municipal market as being in a far better place than 6 months ago with strong positive moves, though the past few weeks have seen weaker prices with the influx of large bond deals such as the biggest tax-exempt bond issue in over 2 months offered by Puerto Rico and the Build America bond program. All of these new issuances have been difficult for the market to absorb but the team at Oppenheimer thinks that the worst is over. A lot of these issuances have also been in the high grade sector with AAA ratings or above, which doesn’t really affect ORNAX since it focuses on high yield bonds.
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RYMFX: Rydex Managed Futures Strategy Fund [25-Jun-09]

Lee Munson and Lorn Owen Davis provide independent fund research on Rydex Managed Futures Strategy Fund (RYMFX).

Alternative strategies and assets in mutual funds can provide relief from the US equity markets for investors’ portfolios. The Rydex/SGI Managed Futures Strategy Fund (RYMFX) is an opportunity for investors to take part in that relief by adding exposure to commodity and currencies in a long short environment. RYMFX is one of the first funds to track the relatively unknown S&P Diversified Trends Indicator, a long/short momentum strategy in the major futures markets that has been strong in delivering non-correlating returns over the past 10 years. Investors utilize managed futures strategies to reduce risk in their portfolio by being uncorrelated with the stock and bond markets.
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Move (Inc.) It or Lose It [23-Jun-09]

Lee Munson and Patrick Kirts comment on MOVE. Published on Seeking Alpha

Sometimes you need to take some risk. That means different things to people, but at our firm it means going long a stock that you plan on holding for a while. Investors take the ultimate risk: they buy and hope the investment gods shine on them.

In looking for a long-term opportunity, there are a few things we want. First, an illiquidity premium is a must since you are not looking to sell tomorrow. Second, find something with hidden assets, maybe something the average stock screener won’t identify. Third, make sure there are the typical Buffett things like a moat, good management, and a cheap valuation. After that you are alone in the dark.

Read the full article here.

Linn, Tortoise Energy: Risk vs. Reward [18-Jun-09]

Lee Munson and Patrick Kirts comment on Linn and Tortoise Energy. Published on Seeking Alpha

By now the cat is out of the bag on Linn Energy, LLC (LINE). This was a top holding of Seth Klarman, from whom I ripped off the idea (I do mean that in a good way!). Warren Buffett has always supported copying the great investors. On May 5th I read some commentary by Sham Gad on RealMoney on Oil & Gas MLPs that reminded me why I own them.

Read the full article here.

The Short Term Case for Long Term Deflation [17-Jun-09]

Lee Munson and Lorn Owen Davis comment on deflation. Published on Seeking Alpha

At Portfolio Asset Management we see the current short-term deflation leading to longer-term inflation. While we think inflation is inevitable, let’s drill down on the argument that long term deflationists are making and extrapolate from there. For inflation bulls, it is good to know what the other side’s arguments are, and for deflation bulls, we’re going to tell you what you want to hear! Of course we won’t know for sure who is right for another couple years.

Read the full article here.