Opening Bid with Lee Munson

Brian Sozzi asked me to give his viewers my take on markets after the second week of conflict with Iran. We agreed on one thing - Wall Street has been slow to the reality that this is a real oil shock, with real repercussions for 2026. That includes saying goodbye to Fed cuts this year, further compression in software stocks, and overall being patience and not reacting to headlines.

If you really want to take advantage of lower prices for stocks and bonds - then wait for actual lower prices. Because we aren't even down 5% from all time highs for the broad market. That isn't a correction, yet.

Munson on floor of NYSE: 'Make Tech Value Again': This is software's 'only hope'

What a treat! My long time friend and Yahoo! Finance host invited me to hang out on the NYSE and see the closing bell ring - because who wouldn’t want to visit the cathedral of capitalism. While we were waiting, why not do a quick interview?

We cover oil, how markets had not yet started to get volatile, and most important, how software and tech in general needs to come down in valuation - or as I like to say MAKE TECH VALUE AGAIN. Enjoy!

CNBC Power Lunch give Munson a Tag Line: Make Tech Value Again

Why not have a tag line? MAKE TECH VALUE AGAIN

What I mean by all of this is if we simply have mega tech go sideways for nine months the forward earnings are so strong, so huge, that multiples will go down naturally. Or in other words, the earnings catch up with the price. And really, people think this war with Iran will go away soon. I'm not so sure.

I lay out my strategy for the year - because sometimes cheap becomes dear and dear grows into the multiple.

Munson Back on Making Money with Charles Payne

Charles producer reached out to see if I would be willing to discuss value stocks - and of course the answer was yes!

Here is the bottom line: Value isn’t a sector. It’s a discipline. It’s paying less for a stream of cash flows than that business is worth. Sometimes that’s energy. Sometimes it’s financials. And sometimes it’s mispriced tech like Amazon - or Google a year ago. It’s about valuation relative to growth and durability — not about whether a company makes steel or software.

Right now, some areas we traditionally associate with value are very pricy, and the hot glamor stocks (just call that the Nasdaq 100!) have seen their inflated multiple come down, just not enough to get me excited - yet.

Remember that CEOs don't grow up wanting to be a value stock - it's something that happens due to poor performance, investor sentiment, and economic trends. So don't go looking for the Loch Ness monster - which is a permanent value stock - we call that a value TRAP.

Munson Asked His Opinion on AI Stocks, Earnings, and Signs of a Bubble

We are about to see the largest IPO in history. We have companies engaging in circular financing similar to the year 2000. We have no clear revenue plan for most of the massive investments in data centers. What could go wrong? If you go looking, the mind will see what it wants to see. Let's break it down and understand what markets are asking and the potential responses by firms.

The big issue going into next year is a clear path of profits for the trillions of dollars we are going to spend on AI infrustructure. We don't have that yet, and when places like Microsoft report slower than expected uptake on AI revenues (i.e. people aren't signing up for AI services as fast as expected), markets pause. When cash machines like Facebook suddenly start borrowing billions to build out AI, not to mention debt hog Oracle, markets get the jitters. But if the revenues follow, and the money flows, it's hard to knock down higher valuations. While we may not be there yet, if earnings don't start catching up with earnings (they have over the last few months!), the day of reconing will come sooner and be more painful.

The good news is that the hot AI names have paused over the past 4 months and let earnings catch up. You can also see value stocks killing it during that same time period. Thus, diversification isn't dead, it's doing what it's supposed to do, and overall markets are healthy. Let's keep an eye on it.

Munson 2026 Outlook and last interview of 2025

As I wrap up 2025, my last interview had a few themes: tech earnings and who will lead the Fed. Is there anything else people care about? Not really.

The earnings for tech is there, as it is for the rest of the market. For some reason, most investors are focused on the problems of the world and what politicians say all day rather than tune out the noise and observe earnings. We have seen market valuations decline of the last quarter, as earnings increase and are revised up in aggregate. So, if volatility picks up, I'm looking to add to my equity exposure next year.

As for the Fed, I'm unconcerned about how fast or slow they cut. The Fed wants to cut, but they will do it on their timeline. That gives investors a great backdrop for equity performance, as well as enough uncertainty to allow for volatility when impatient traders don't get cuts on their timeline.

Munson on Fox Business: China, Chips, and Hostile Takeovers

It was a fast morning of hitting the big news that has long term repercussions.

First, we discuss the decision by POTUS to allow H200 Nvidia chips to be exported to China. Time has passed and these are like last weeks newspaper. Here is the big idea - we continue to normalize trade with China, so hopefully we can keep getting exprot certificates for rare earths!

Next, the hostile takeover of Warner Brothers by Paramount is more than simply an exciting news story - it's about the future of the movie industry as we know it. I like Paramount because they are bringing UFC over in January. Time will tell if the minnow swallowing the whale will actually happen.

As for markets, earnings are strong. All we have to fear is AI stock disappointments and the Fed not slashing rates fast enough - so, plenty of risk!

Munson Hanging Out on Yahoo! Finance Opening Bid

Brian Sozzi, who I have known for more years than we want to admit, asked me to hang out on his show, Opening Bid. We covered all the good stuff - my views on the current selloff (I can’t wait for a correction!), AI spending (some rational, some irrational), and even hit some topics like the soft consumer. Sozzi hit Home Depot as a sign of consumer weakness, and I took Target to the woodshed - declining sales and lost mojo. We had a crypto expert on as well, and she pressed a point I’m in agreement with - Bitcoin is now just a reflection of a risk on trade, and when that trade is in a bear market, the broader markets tend to follow. From my research, there is about a 2-6 week lag. So, if Bitcoin is any indication, we may have a larger correction before year end. Time will tell. And, it’s better to have a plan and not need to use it than no plan at all!

Lee Munson Appears on 'Mornings With Maria Bartiromo' talking tariffs and stock markets

Well, let’s just dive into Monday morning and take the pulse of the market:

Markets: I have the Nasdaq 100 looking at 20% earnings growth next 12 months – but I ALSO have small value at 12% with half the valuation. AND rate cuts. You have broad participation of making earnings grow, a necessary component for broad participation. Add trade de-escalation and you end up with higher prices a year from now.

Tech Earnings expectations: Apple must show solid iPhone 17 demand, services is a sideshow without it, so a consumer story. Microsoft is all about monetize AI, or else we are no longer a growth and margin story which is a big transition! AMZN still looking at low double digit earnings. This week tells you the economy.

Tariffs: 100% tariffs on China “is effectively off the table” – there is no other news. Rare earths controls were deferred which is the best-case scenario. We bought some time and that’s good enough for markets.

Inflation: Sticky at 3%. I see labor and cost side keeping it that way. With declining wage inflation, sticky labor, you could see a slower rate cutting cycle than markets wants – that gives you volatility to commit capital – because, again, earnings are strong. Buy any dip from inflation scares.

Fed and yield activity: labor is in control not inflation. Invest accordingly. Now is a transition from risk management cuts with Powell to a full rate cutting cycle (next chairperson).

Munson Killing it on CNBC's Power Lunch

They made a special exception on the Market Navigator segment - allowing me access to the studio so I can talk shop with Dom Chu himself! First off, anything but NVDA!!! It's a running joke at CNBC that all anyone wants to hear about is the AI bellwether.

Nope, we went straight to RHI, staffing agency Robert Half International. Why? It's fascinating! This stock has a huge correlation to the JOLTs surveys. In plain English, when employment volatility heats up either because of a recession or a hot job market - this stock has done well. Big bow to Jesus my analyst for first discovering this correlation.

Then the producers gave us some bonus time so we went right into TTD - The Trade Desk. The largest independent digital ad sales firm, has ben eviscerated this year due to perceived competition from AMZN and connected TV ads coming down in price. I agree! But ask yourself, AMZN just made the pie bigger with their ad supported Prime Video - along with Hulu and Netflix. We are back to the future where watching TV involves ads. Right in time for a stressed consumer looking to save money. Time will tell.