It's Friday and Opening Bid on Yahoo! Finance brought out the big guns. Brian Sozzi is basically a genius. He hand picks all his guests. And for a Friday blowout he paired me with Tom Sosnoff - one of the great tactical traders of our time. Tom is a futures trader that plays every pitch, while I wait for the fat pitch. Tom trades volatility, I allocate around. While Tom sees the world in volatility and probabilities, I work on the macro and earnings.
But here is the thing - our view of markets are very similar right now and that speaks volumes. We both agreed that the juice isn't worth the squeeze with current market levels - the upside of being long isn't worth it. We both think the market grinds down from here, and my thoughts are having to wait for earnings season to pick up in order to see the reduction in forward guidance - meaning, investors won't get nervous until CEOs start to talk about the impact of oil going forward.
Right now? My bust guess is that investors and trades think Trump will just end the war tomorrow and peace will break out - but those people don't do their homework - infrastructure to LNG and oil fields take years to repair - or as I said "this ain't fixing a pothole in Boston."