Lee Munson was published on Forbes.com again last Friday. His article starts with this quote:
“Why can’t we be honest about what is going on today? This was a populist vote to throw immigrants out of the UK. It was a referendum asking the British if they felt better off than 15 years ago. On top of that, 99% of Wall Street and their London counterparts thought leaving the EU was never going to happen.”
Here’s the full story: http://bit.ly/295bvCI
Lee makes the following points:
1. A year ago, nobody on Wall Street thought a reality TV star/property developer could get the Republican nomination. The UK has done what many in the U.S. want to do by voting for Trump: kick the bums out, build a wall, close the ports, and bully other countries into trade deals that will only favor them.
2. So because of Brexit, the S&P 500 has given up the gains for the year so far. That’s just volatility, especially when you consider it’s up over 12% from the lows this year.
3. UK politicians will spend the next two years figuring out how not to trash their economy because some xenophobes voted with their hearts and forgot about their stock portfolios. At least the population doesn’t get to vote on the 50-plus trade agreements that will need to be ratified.
4. Keep in mind that the UK never used the Euro.
5. My advice: If you have extra cash to invest into a globally-diversified stock and bond portfolio, go ahead and add a little, especially the international side.
6. If you are fully invested, don’t do anything. There is not enough volatility in price from the February 11th low to make rebalancing worthwhile.
7. If you actually pick stocks, you already know what to do. (NOTE: The S&P is not really a bargain right now.)
8. Brexit doesn’t matter.
^SPX data by YCharts