Recently I was asked to be on Countdown To The Closing Bell. Sometimes they need the real Lee Munson to add some excitement to Liz Claman's show. Connell McShane was filling in that day. It was a skeleton crew, the last Friday before Christmas. I was at the office and happy to give my two cents worth. (It was also an excuse to bring up Starbucks since the new CEO went to NMSU and my father in law is a big Aggie fan. He was at my house for the holidays and got to see me say “Go Aggies” on TV. Life is full of simple pleasures.) They wanted to know some stocks for the New Year. I thought it was important to let people know that the easy money on small cap value had already been played, and if people want to try to speculate and put money down on what they think will be a trend because of Trump getting in the White House, why not look at basic business spending? Small businesses, if given a tax break and less regulation, might spend a little bit more. Where are those places? Workers work harder, they get more Starbucks. Business owners have a little extra money because of the tax break; they're going to spend more at Costco. When you're talking on a Friday afternoon to people who are looking to get some ideas and move onto their weekend, it's best not to dwell on technical analysis, earnings per share, minutiae, and just get down to the big picture.
I think what people need to realize is that 2016 was a year of learning to be patient. Those who dumped out of equities earlier in the year are probably really sad they did that, and those that stuck with a disciplined program were rewarded. If you want to go into individual stocks, it's best to invest in what you know and have a non-complicated, basis thesis. That's what speculation is all about. Are you going to bet on red, or are you going to bet on black? If not, one needs to get serious and get a globally diversified portfolio there to get you through thick and thin. If you'd like more information about how Portfolio Wealth Advisors can help you spend more time on the mountain, please contact us at [email protected], 505-884-3445.