Wall Street was blindsided by the Trump win in November. The win and everything about Donald Trump puts us in a brave new world, with implications for investors’ portfolios. New trends are taking shape. What I call the Trump Trends are what I believe will become huge shifts in our political and cultural landscape that could change how we look at the intersection of money and politics. In a nutshell here are three of the most potentially disrupting trends I see:
1) We live in a post-truth world.
When Donald J. Trump opened his Twitter account @realDonaldTrump in March of 2009, he probably was not thinking about how he would use it to talk to the world from the position of POTUS. He probably was playing around with it like many of us trying to figure out what it was all about. Hey I was curious too! Remember my client statement article “Who Tweets?” from Q4 2010? But now we see a trend that could change how we think about news. When we can get the message straight from the source and see comments and have real time conversations, it changes the dynamics of how the press presents and spins news.
2) Donald J. Trump will continue to confound conventional thinking.
I call this a trend that encompasses all the ways Donald Trump becoming president turned out different than was generally believed. The negative futures from election night were the first big flashing sign! The S&P500 stock index closed lower for nine straight days on Wall Street heading into the election week. (This was the longest losing streak in 36 years). Then rallied by 2.6% nearly erasing the loss (3%). The conventional thinking? If Trump wins the market will take a nosedive. Of course I find this funny since many clients commented earlier this year that they would expect a stock rally if Trump won. What was really happening was a few large hedge funds had made bets that Clinton would win, and had to unwind them quickly in the middle of the night. While globalization was called into question, the reality is that Republicans would finally be able to push through tax cuts and lighten regulation sent small caps higher, a lot higher in the weeks that followed. This momentum is real, and not based on who you voted for.
3) We will find out if running a Country can be like running a Company.
Clearly Trump will try to choose those best for the job of Making America Great Again. We will see the stories, but if you look at what makes a great CEO in America you will find a Trump Trend around getting the right person for the job in the belief of obtaining the best result. For years there has been public debate if business leaders can make better politicians. Clearly, most Americans don’t think the status quo of hiring rich attorneys into office has worked out. Sure, for years politicians have been granting jobs and status to many unqualified in exchange for favors. While we are sure to see some appointments that some may disagree with or even be shocked by – this Trump Trend could have real effective change long term – hiring the right person for the job whether they backed you, were for you or even said they wouldn’t do the job. Who knew? Time will tell how much improvement we can get by running the country like a successful company.
Donald Trump is more than a different kind of hairdo. He is a real person with a passion for success. When he set out to become president he played by the rules of what it takes to get our attention. He got our attention. But deep down I believe he will play by his own energy and passion for winning. Not winning for winning sake but winning because he truly wants to Make America Great Again.